Our Methodology Framework
Designed for clients who need clear, reliable answers about Europe's real energy and technology markets. Everything we deliver is grounded in per-unit metrics (€/MWh, €/kWh, MW, GWh) and backed by:
Hourly System Data
Regulatory Analysis
Project Constraints
Technology Economics
Applies across power markets, BESS, EV charging, solar, wind, batteries, and cleantech supply chains — with each market using only the modules that are relevant.
Methodology Steps
Clear Scope, Objectives & Research Questions
Every study begins with a tight scope so the analysis stays focused and practical.
Geographic coverage:
- EU-27 plus UK, Norway, Switzerland
- Or priority markets such as Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy, Nordics, CEE
Segments we analyse:
- Generation: solar, wind, hydro, thermal, nuclear
- TSOs/DSOs and grid infrastructure
- Wholesale markets: day-ahead, intraday, balancing
- Retail and C&I supply
- Storage (BESS, pumped hydro)
- Hydrogen, flexibility, EV charging, batteries, cleantech manufacturing
Example objectives:
- Map market structure and competition
- Analyse price trends and volatility
- Evaluate technology economics and revenue stacks
- Assess policy and regulatory impacts
- Identify risk-adjusted opportunities and bottlenecks
Key questions:
- How are prices changing across EU markets?
- What drives volatility today?
- Where do grid constraints block growth?
- Which countries and technologies offer the best risk-return?
Data Collection & Sources
We build a country-hour panel dataset wherever possible to ensure insights are grounded in actual market behavior.
Primary Data (per-unit, granular)
ENTSO-E Transparency Platform
- Hourly/15-min demand
- Generation by fuel
- Cross-border flows
- Outages
- Day-ahead & intraday prices
- Curtailment indicators
Market Exchanges
- EPEX Spot, Nord Pool, OMIE, BSP, EEX
- Day-ahead, intraday, balancing prices (€/MWh)
- Congestion and redispatch costs
Eurostat & ACER
- Retail C&I and household tariffs
- Taxes/levies
- Quarterly wholesale benchmarks
Secondary Data
- Ember, S&P, IEA, Fraunhofer, Bruegel
- LCOE (€/MWh)
- Fuel prices (€/MWh equivalent)
- Carbon prices (€/tCO₂)
- Technology performance
- Regulators (e.g., BNetzA, CRE, Ofgem)
- Tariff codes
- Capacity mechanism payments
- Auction rules
- Grid access regulations
Sampling & Time Window
- Focus on major bidding zones: DE-LU, FR, UK, IT, Nordics
- 2020–2025 historic data
- Forward curves where available to 2030
- Normalisation to per-unit values for cross-country comparison
Data Processing & Normalisation
We clean and standardise all inputs to ensure fair comparisons across countries.
Per-unit standardisation:
- €/MWh for wholesale
- €/kWh for retail
- MW for capacity
- GWh for generation
- Weighted averages based on load
Triangulation:
- Cross-verify ENTSO-E vs exchanges vs Ember
- Adjust for bidding zone splits
- Account for market coupling influences
Feature engineering:
- Volatility (σ €/MWh)
- Frequency of negative prices
- Merit-order curve estimation
- LCOE vs wholesale price differentials
- Balancing market spread analysis
Tools used:
- Python, Pandas for data cleaning
- Jupyter environments for modelling
- Automated scripts for hourly data aggregation
Market & System-Level Analysis
We convert raw system data into clear, comparable market insights.
Market structure:
- Generation mix by fuel
- Ownership concentration (HHI)
- Utility vs IPP capacity distribution
Price & demand behavior:
- Hourly, daily and seasonal price patterns
- Distribution of spikes and negative prices
- Load curve analysis
- Temperature–demand correlations
Cross-country comparison:
- Average prices
- Volatility levels
- RES penetration
- CO₂ intensity
- Interconnection ratios
Drivers of Price & Volatility
We isolate what truly moves EU power prices.
Econometric & time-series models:
- ARIMAX / SARIMA
- Panel regression across markets
- GARCH models for volatility clustering
Inputs include:
- Load (MW)
- Wind & solar output (GWh)
- Fuel prices (€/MWh)
- ETS prices (€/tCO₂)
- Interconnector flows
- Outages
- Weather
Scenario-based driver analysis:
- Gas price spikes
- Nuclear outages
- Wind droughts
- Hydro shortages
- Policy changes
- New interconnectors
We also back-test how much each driver contributed to historical price movements.
Technology Economics & Competitiveness
We benchmark technology performance and cost evolution using consistent metrics.
Includes:
- Capex, opex, efficiency
- LCOE estimates (€/MWh)
- WACC sensitivity
- Carbon cost sensitivity
- Storage cycle economics (€/kWh, €/MW-yr)
- Module/turbine cost trends
Revenue Stack & Bankability
For each asset class, we map out all revenue sources and risks.
Revenue sources:
- Energy market revenues
- Intraday and balancing opportunities
- Ancillary services
- Capacity payments
- CfDs, FiTs, premiums
- PPA structures (corporate + utility)
This section is essential for investors and lenders to understand:
- Merchant exposure vs contracted revenue
- Revenue stability
- Risk-adjusted returns
Policy, Regulation & Market Design
We translate complex policy frameworks into practical implications.
EU-level review:
- ETS reforms
- Market design packages
- Taxonomy classification
- State-aid guidelines
Country regimes:
- Auction rules
- Permitting requirements
- Grid connection rules
- Curtailment compensation
- Tariff design
- Flexibility policies
Regulatory risks:
- Price caps/floors
- Retroactive changes
- Windfall taxes
- Local acceptance issues
Grid, Infrastructure & System Adequacy
We analyse how infrastructure limits or enables market growth.
Grid & interconnection:
- Congestion hotspots
- Curtailment patterns
- TSO/DSO investment plans
- Interconnector pipeline
Adequacy & security of supply:
- LOLE, reserve margins
- Role of gas, nuclear, hydro, storage
- Stress tests for extreme conditions
Modelling Validation & Scenarios
We check all models for realism and reliability.
Validation techniques:
- Backtesting (MAE/RMSE)
- Scenario sensitivity (+/-20% RES output, fuel prices)
- Rapid Evidence Assessment of literature
- Stakeholder feedback loop
This ensures accuracy and transparency in all our analyses and recommendations.
Reporting & Visualisation
Everything is packaged in clear visual formats for easy understanding.
Visual outputs:
- Price heatmaps (€/MWh)
- Load and RES patterns
- Merit-order curves
- LCOE stacks
- Curtailment & congestion maps
- Policy dashboards
- Technology scorecards
- Country opportunity matrices
Stakeholder & Expert Insights
When required, we conduct structured interviews to add real-world judgment where data alone is not enough.
Interviewees include:
- Utilities & IPPs
- TSOs & DSOs
- OEMs
- Infra funds and lenders
- Policymakers
- Industry associations
Ready to Apply This Methodology?
Our team of energy analysts can deliver custom research tailored to your specific needs.
Contact Our Research Team